LOS ANGELES, CA – JANUARY 27: Michelle Yeoh attends the 25th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards at The Shrine Auditorium on January 27, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. 480543 (Photo by Mike Coppola/Getty Images for Turner)
And so it appears, the morning after the PGAs and weekend after the DGAs, we have our selection in place with Everything Everywhere All At Once. However, there are a few caveats. First, there is BAFTA, which heavily went for the remake of All Quiet on the Western Front with seven wins, including Director Edward Berger (not Oscar-nominated!). Then, there (of course) were the Golden Globe wins, which were The Fabelmans, by the kindred Spielberg.
I discuss this a bit in my most recent TALKING MOVIES â moreover, itâs now time for evaluating which film(s) are most likely to win Best Pic.
First AND MOST LIKELY, we have EEAAO (youâll have to get used to acronyms from this point on) simply by the aligning dynamics of the top guilds recently, plus the Daniels. Yes, SAG is tonight and I look forward to it as well. Could not necessarily be a âsweepâ (impossible due to multiple noms in a category) but could very well be be 3+ at bare bones minimum. Expecting more, including Editing.
Then, comes the glorious ballad of AQOTWF. What a tragic, beautiful and unflinching remake about WW1. If 1917 was sparse in what it depicted, this one is essentially the opposite, while still declaring war is hell and has no purpose in the thick of it. Managed to WIN seven BAFTAs including Picture and Director for Berger, which either means they like this film a LOT and/or itâs a statement that the Brits are not yet ready for the more progressive EEAAO. All Quiet⊠should be a lock on Cinematography at minimum, possibly Score.
Now, âŠFabelmans almost seems like Avatar (2!) at this point â am I allowed to say its ship has sailedâŠ? It still DID win Golden Globes for Director (Spielberg) and Picture, but I must add this was truly before the general public was familiar with the films at play. It has helped for the viewing public to start actually see some of these films, whether theatrically or at home, especially if they are members of the Academy.
There may be some wondering about a sliver of other films in contention (e.g. WOMEN TALKING, TOP GUN: MAVERICK, TRIANGLE OF SADNESS, etc.), and the only other one potentially [really] in contention at all would be THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN, also a beautiful, deranged Irish examination of a tiny coastal town that has one man a bit more shaken up than usual, and we watch the deck of cards fall where they may. I appreciated a lot of it, even more than McDonaughâs THREE BILLBOARDS⊠It (as with EEAAO) has FOUR acting nominations apiece â we probably should expect one+ to win, possibly Supporting Actress.
In conclusion, it is extremely difficult for a random picture to win the top spot, but there can be surprises (take Andrea Riseborough). Absolutely would not expect Elvis to win Best Pic (shivers), but TOP GUN: MAVERICKâŠ? Itâs chances include Oscar-nominated Producer Tom Cruise â that must count. Song goes here or RRR.
